Final Project for EECS 398 Practical Data Science
Names: Anthony Sun, Wenjia Lu
Introduction
In the high-stakes world of professional League of Legends, every second and every decision can tip the balance between victory and defeat. While matches officially conclude when a team’s Nexus is destroyed, competitive outcomes are often shaped much earlier through resource advantages and map control. Three in-game metrics — creep score (CS), gold, map control — consistently stand out as key indicators of a team’s advantage over the game.
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Creep Score (CS) tracks how efficiently players are farming minions, a primary source of gold and experience that also reflects the player’s mechanical expertise in last-hitting.
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Gold is used to purchase items, which help teams gain combat advantages.
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Map control measures a team’s control over the map, which considers factors from vision score (how much of the map is visible thanks to your team’s wards?) to objective control (how many heralds or dragons has your team slain?).
This analysis focuses on determining whether it’s possible to predict the final outcome of a match using these performance metrics.
Our dataset of 115152 rows comes from Oracle’s Elixir, and contains data on individual player statistics and teamwide statistics in 9596 professional games. We will analyze our data using the teamwide statistics, a total of 19,192 rows of the dataset. The relevant columns we use are as follows:
result: outcome of a match; ‘0’ indicates defeat, ‘1’ indicates victory
gameid: unique identifier for each game
side: either ‘Red’ or ‘Blue’, indicating which side the team starts on in the game; we have later numerically encoded this to 0 (Blue) and 1 (Red)
firstherald: whether the team has secured the first herald; ‘1’ indicates true, ‘0’ indicates false
heralds: number of heralds the team has slain
firstdragon: whether the team has secured the first dragon; ‘1’ indicates true, ‘0’ indicates false
firstblood: whether the team was the first to slay an enemy player; ‘1’ indicates true, ‘0’ indicates false
goldatX: total gold earned for the team at the X-minute mark; indicative of strength in terms of economy, for X = 10, 15, 20
golddiffatX: difference in total gold earned between teams at the X-minute mark; indicative of strength in terms of economy, for X = 10, 15, 20
xpatX: total experience points earned for the team at the X-minute mark; indicative of strength in terms of levels, for X = 10, 15, 20
xpdiffatX: difference in experience points earned between teams at the X-minute mark; indicative of strength in terms of levels, for X = 10, 15, 20
csatX: total creep score (CS) for the team at the X-minute mark; contributes to overall gold and XP advantage, for X = 10, 15, 20
csdiffatX: difference in creep score (CS) between teams at the X-minute mark; contributes to overall gold and XP advantage, for X = 10, 15, 20
killsatX: number of kills by the team at the X-minute mark, for X = 10, 15, 20
assistsatX: number of assists by team at the X-minute mark, for X = 10, 15, 20
deathsatX: number of deaths by team at the X-minute mark, for X = 10, 15, 20
Here’s a preview of our data:
| gameid | datacompleteness | url | league | year | split | playoffs | date | game | patch | participantid | side | position | playername | playerid | teamname | teamid | champion | ban1 | ban2 | ban3 | ban4 | ban5 | pick1 | pick2 | pick3 | pick4 | pick5 | gamelength | result | kills | deaths | assists | teamkills | teamdeaths | doublekills | triplekills | quadrakills | pentakills | firstblood | firstbloodkill | firstbloodassist | firstbloodvictim | team kpm | ckpm | firstdragon | dragons | opp_dragons | elementaldrakes | opp_elementaldrakes | infernals | mountains | clouds | oceans | chemtechs | hextechs | dragons (type unknown) | elders | opp_elders | firstherald | heralds | opp_heralds | void_grubs | opp_void_grubs | firstbaron | barons | opp_barons | firsttower | towers | opp_towers | firstmidtower | firsttothreetowers | turretplates | opp_turretplates | inhibitors | opp_inhibitors | damagetochampions | dpm | damageshare | damagetakenperminute | damagemitigatedperminute | wardsplaced | wpm | wardskilled | wcpm | controlwardsbought | visionscore | vspm | totalgold | earnedgold | earned gpm | earnedgoldshare | goldspent | gspd | gpr | total cs | minionkills | monsterkills | monsterkillsownjungle | monsterkillsenemyjungle | cspm | goldat10 | xpat10 | csat10 | opp_goldat10 | opp_xpat10 | opp_csat10 | golddiffat10 | xpdiffat10 | csdiffat10 | killsat10 | assistsat10 | deathsat10 | opp_killsat10 | opp_assistsat10 | opp_deathsat10 | goldat15 | xpat15 | csat15 | opp_goldat15 | opp_xpat15 | opp_csat15 | golddiffat15 | xpdiffat15 | csdiffat15 | killsat15 | assistsat15 | deathsat15 | opp_killsat15 | opp_assistsat15 | opp_deathsat15 | goldat20 | xpat20 | csat20 | opp_goldat20 | opp_xpat20 | opp_csat20 | golddiffat20 | xpdiffat20 | csdiffat20 | killsat20 | assistsat20 | deathsat20 | opp_killsat20 | opp_assistsat20 | opp_deathsat20 | goldat25 | xpat25 | csat25 | opp_goldat25 | opp_xpat25 | opp_csat25 | golddiffat25 | xpdiffat25 | csdiffat25 | killsat25 | assistsat25 | deathsat25 | opp_killsat25 | opp_assistsat25 | opp_deathsat25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESPORTSTMNT01_2690210 | complete | nan | LCKC | 2022 | Spring | 0 | 2022-01-10 07:44:08 | 1 | 12.01 | 1 | Blue | top | Soboro | oe:player:38e0af7278d6769d0c81d7c4b47ac1e | BRION Challengers | oe:team:733ebb9dbf22a401c0127a0c80193ca | Renekton | Karma | Caitlyn | Syndra | Thresh | Lulu | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 1713 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3152 | 0.9807 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 0 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 0 | 15768 | 552.294 | 0.278784 | 1072.4 | 777.793 | 8 | 0.2802 | 6 | 0.2102 | 5 | 26 | 0.9107 | 10934 | 7164 | 250.928 | 0.253859 | 10275 | nan | nan | 231 | 220 | 11 | nan | nan | 8.0911 | 3228 | 4909 | 89 | 3176 | 4953 | 81 | 52 | -44 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5025 | 7560 | 135 | 4634 | 7215 | 121 | 391 | 345 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6506 | 9853 | 172 | 6338 | 10200 | 171 | 168 | -347 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8462 | 11754 | 212 | 7857 | 12279 | 203 | 605 | -525 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| ESPORTSTMNT01_2690210 | complete | nan | LCKC | 2022 | Spring | 0 | 2022-01-10 07:44:08 | 1 | 12.01 | 2 | Blue | jng | Raptor | oe:player:637ed20b1e41be1c51bd1a4cb211357 | BRION Challengers | oe:team:733ebb9dbf22a401c0127a0c80193ca | Xin Zhao | Karma | Caitlyn | Syndra | Thresh | Lulu | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 1713 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3152 | 0.9807 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 0 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 1 | 11765 | 412.084 | 0.208009 | 944.273 | 650.158 | 6 | 0.2102 | 18 | 0.6305 | 6 | 48 | 1.6813 | 9138 | 5368 | 188.021 | 0.19022 | 8750 | nan | nan | 148 | 33 | 115 | nan | nan | 5.1839 | 3429 | 3484 | 58 | 2944 | 3052 | 63 | 485 | 432 | -5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5366 | 5320 | 89 | 4825 | 5595 | 100 | 541 | -275 | -11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6854 | 7193 | 116 | 6708 | 8275 | 142 | 146 | -1082 | -26 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8254 | 8958 | 135 | 7833 | 9861 | 163 | 421 | -903 | -28 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| ESPORTSTMNT01_2690210 | complete | nan | LCKC | 2022 | Spring | 0 | 2022-01-10 07:44:08 | 1 | 12.01 | 3 | Blue | mid | Feisty | oe:player:d1ae0e2f9f3ac1e0e0cdcb86504ca77 | BRION Challengers | oe:team:733ebb9dbf22a401c0127a0c80193ca | LeBlanc | Karma | Caitlyn | Syndra | Thresh | Lulu | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 1713 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3152 | 0.9807 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 0 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 0 | 14258 | 499.405 | 0.252086 | 581.646 | 227.776 | 19 | 0.6655 | 7 | 0.2452 | 7 | 29 | 1.0158 | 9715 | 5945 | 208.231 | 0.210665 | 8725 | nan | nan | 193 | 177 | 16 | nan | nan | 6.7601 | 3283 | 4556 | 81 | 3121 | 4485 | 81 | 162 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5118 | 6942 | 120 | 5593 | 6789 | 119 | -475 | 153 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6511 | 8786 | 157 | 6973 | 9056 | 154 | -462 | -270 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8312 | 10537 | 182 | 8461 | 10761 | 187 | -149 | -224 | -5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| ESPORTSTMNT01_2690210 | complete | nan | LCKC | 2022 | Spring | 0 | 2022-01-10 07:44:08 | 1 | 12.01 | 4 | Blue | bot | Gamin | oe:player:998b3e49b01ecc41eacc392477a98cf | BRION Challengers | oe:team:733ebb9dbf22a401c0127a0c80193ca | Samira | Karma | Caitlyn | Syndra | Thresh | Lulu | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 1713 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3152 | 0.9807 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 0 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 0 | 11106 | 389.002 | 0.196358 | 463.853 | 218.879 | 12 | 0.4203 | 6 | 0.2102 | 4 | 25 | 0.8757 | 10605 | 6835 | 239.405 | 0.242201 | 10425 | nan | nan | 226 | 208 | 18 | nan | nan | 7.9159 | 3600 | 3103 | 78 | 3304 | 2838 | 90 | 296 | 265 | -12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5461 | 4591 | 115 | 6254 | 5934 | 149 | -793 | -1343 | -34 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7306 | 6266 | 153 | 8516 | 8611 | 223 | -1210 | -2345 | -70 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9356 | 8287 | 199 | 10644 | 10292 | 284 | -1288 | -2005 | -85 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| ESPORTSTMNT01_2690210 | complete | nan | LCKC | 2022 | Spring | 0 | 2022-01-10 07:44:08 | 1 | 12.01 | 5 | Blue | sup | Loopy | oe:player:e9741b3a238723ea6380ef2113fae63 | BRION Challengers | oe:team:733ebb9dbf22a401c0127a0c80193ca | Leona | Karma | Caitlyn | Syndra | Thresh | Lulu | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 1713 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.3152 | 0.9807 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 0 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 0 | 3663 | 128.301 | 0.0647631 | 475.026 | 490.123 | 29 | 1.0158 | 14 | 0.4904 | 11 | 69 | 2.4168 | 6678 | 2908 | 101.856 | 0.103054 | 6395 | nan | nan | 42 | 42 | 0 | nan | nan | 1.4711 | 2678 | 2161 | 16 | 2150 | 2748 | 15 | 528 | -587 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3836 | 3588 | 28 | 3393 | 4085 | 21 | 443 | -497 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4785 | 4776 | 33 | 4371 | 5679 | 25 | 414 | -903 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5840 | 6424 | 39 | 5341 | 6738 | 27 | 499 | -314 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 |
Data Cleaning and Exploratory Data Analysis
Data Cleaning
We removed rows on individual statistics from our data as our model only uses teamwide data and performed data imputation, as below.
Imputation
We imputed missing values as NaN instead of the mean or median. In this dataset, missing values occurred when (1) our dataset is incomplete and 20-minute data was unavailable, and (2) when games ended before 20 minutes. In both situations, filling in missing values would be inappropriate and change the meaning of the missing values, so they were left as is.
We are left with the following data (preview) after cleaning:
| gameid | side | position | playerid | teamname | teamid | champion | ban1 | ban2 | ban3 | ban4 | ban5 | pick1 | pick2 | pick3 | pick4 | pick5 | gamelength | result | kills | deaths | assists | doublekills | triplekills | quadrakills | pentakills | firstblood | firstbloodkill | firstbloodassist | firstbloodvictim | team kpm | ckpm | firstdragon | dragons | opp_dragons | elementaldrakes | opp_elementaldrakes | infernals | mountains | clouds | oceans | chemtechs | hextechs | dragons (type unknown) | elders | opp_elders | firstherald | heralds | opp_heralds | void_grubs | opp_void_grubs | firstbaron | barons | opp_barons | firsttower | towers | opp_towers | firstmidtower | firsttothreetowers | turretplates | opp_turretplates | inhibitors | opp_inhibitors | damagetochampions | dpm | damageshare | damagetakenperminute | damagemitigatedperminute | wardsplaced | wpm | wardskilled | wcpm | controlwardsbought | visionscore | vspm | totalgold | earnedgold | earned gpm | earnedgoldshare | goldspent | gspd | gpr | total cs | minionkills | monsterkills | monsterkillsownjungle | monsterkillsenemyjungle | cspm | goldat10 | xpat10 | csat10 | opp_goldat10 | opp_xpat10 | opp_csat10 | golddiffat10 | xpdiffat10 | csdiffat10 | killsat10 | assistsat10 | deathsat10 | opp_killsat10 | opp_assistsat10 | opp_deathsat10 | goldat15 | xpat15 | csat15 | opp_goldat15 | opp_xpat15 | opp_csat15 | golddiffat15 | xpdiffat15 | csdiffat15 | killsat15 | assistsat15 | deathsat15 | opp_killsat15 | opp_assistsat15 | opp_deathsat15 | goldat20 | xpat20 | csat20 | opp_goldat20 | opp_xpat20 | opp_csat20 | golddiffat20 | xpdiffat20 | csdiffat20 | killsat20 | assistsat20 | deathsat20 | opp_killsat20 | opp_assistsat20 | opp_deathsat20 | goldat25 | xpat25 | csat25 | opp_goldat25 | opp_xpat25 | opp_csat25 | golddiffat25 | xpdiffat25 | csdiffat25 | killsat25 | assistsat25 | deathsat25 | opp_killsat25 | opp_assistsat25 | opp_deathsat25 |
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| ESPORTSTMNT01_2690210 | Blue | top | oe:player:38e0af7278d6769d0c81d7c4b47ac1e | BRION Challengers | oe:team:733ebb9dbf22a401c0127a0c80193ca | Renekton | Karma | Caitlyn | Syndra | Thresh | Lulu | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 1713 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3152 | 0.9807 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 0 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 0 | 15768 | 552.294 | 0.278784 | 1072.4 | 777.793 | 8 | 0.2802 | 6 | 0.2102 | 5 | 26 | 0.9107 | 10934 | 7164 | 250.928 | 0.253859 | 10275 | nan | nan | 231 | 220 | 11 | nan | nan | 8.0911 | 3228 | 4909 | 89 | 3176 | 4953 | 81 | 52 | -44 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5025 | 7560 | 135 | 4634 | 7215 | 121 | 391 | 345 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6506 | 9853 | 172 | 6338 | 10200 | 171 | 168 | -347 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8462 | 11754 | 212 | 7857 | 12279 | 203 | 605 | -525 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| ESPORTSTMNT01_2690210 | Blue | jng | oe:player:637ed20b1e41be1c51bd1a4cb211357 | BRION Challengers | oe:team:733ebb9dbf22a401c0127a0c80193ca | Xin Zhao | Karma | Caitlyn | Syndra | Thresh | Lulu | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 1713 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3152 | 0.9807 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 0 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 1 | 11765 | 412.084 | 0.208009 | 944.273 | 650.158 | 6 | 0.2102 | 18 | 0.6305 | 6 | 48 | 1.6813 | 9138 | 5368 | 188.021 | 0.19022 | 8750 | nan | nan | 148 | 33 | 115 | nan | nan | 5.1839 | 3429 | 3484 | 58 | 2944 | 3052 | 63 | 485 | 432 | -5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5366 | 5320 | 89 | 4825 | 5595 | 100 | 541 | -275 | -11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6854 | 7193 | 116 | 6708 | 8275 | 142 | 146 | -1082 | -26 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8254 | 8958 | 135 | 7833 | 9861 | 163 | 421 | -903 | -28 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| ESPORTSTMNT01_2690210 | Blue | mid | oe:player:d1ae0e2f9f3ac1e0e0cdcb86504ca77 | BRION Challengers | oe:team:733ebb9dbf22a401c0127a0c80193ca | LeBlanc | Karma | Caitlyn | Syndra | Thresh | Lulu | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 1713 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3152 | 0.9807 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 0 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 0 | 14258 | 499.405 | 0.252086 | 581.646 | 227.776 | 19 | 0.6655 | 7 | 0.2452 | 7 | 29 | 1.0158 | 9715 | 5945 | 208.231 | 0.210665 | 8725 | nan | nan | 193 | 177 | 16 | nan | nan | 6.7601 | 3283 | 4556 | 81 | 3121 | 4485 | 81 | 162 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5118 | 6942 | 120 | 5593 | 6789 | 119 | -475 | 153 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6511 | 8786 | 157 | 6973 | 9056 | 154 | -462 | -270 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8312 | 10537 | 182 | 8461 | 10761 | 187 | -149 | -224 | -5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| ESPORTSTMNT01_2690210 | Blue | bot | oe:player:998b3e49b01ecc41eacc392477a98cf | BRION Challengers | oe:team:733ebb9dbf22a401c0127a0c80193ca | Samira | Karma | Caitlyn | Syndra | Thresh | Lulu | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 1713 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3152 | 0.9807 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 0 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 0 | 11106 | 389.002 | 0.196358 | 463.853 | 218.879 | 12 | 0.4203 | 6 | 0.2102 | 4 | 25 | 0.8757 | 10605 | 6835 | 239.405 | 0.242201 | 10425 | nan | nan | 226 | 208 | 18 | nan | nan | 7.9159 | 3600 | 3103 | 78 | 3304 | 2838 | 90 | 296 | 265 | -12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5461 | 4591 | 115 | 6254 | 5934 | 149 | -793 | -1343 | -34 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7306 | 6266 | 153 | 8516 | 8611 | 223 | -1210 | -2345 | -70 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9356 | 8287 | 199 | 10644 | 10292 | 284 | -1288 | -2005 | -85 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| ESPORTSTMNT01_2690210 | Blue | sup | oe:player:e9741b3a238723ea6380ef2113fae63 | BRION Challengers | oe:team:733ebb9dbf22a401c0127a0c80193ca | Leona | Karma | Caitlyn | Syndra | Thresh | Lulu | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 1713 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.3152 | 0.9807 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 0 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | 0 | 0 | 3663 | 128.301 | 0.0647631 | 475.026 | 490.123 | 29 | 1.0158 | 14 | 0.4904 | 11 | 69 | 2.4168 | 6678 | 2908 | 101.856 | 0.103054 | 6395 | nan | nan | 42 | 42 | 0 | nan | nan | 1.4711 | 2678 | 2161 | 16 | 2150 | 2748 | 15 | 528 | -587 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3836 | 3588 | 28 | 3393 | 4085 | 21 | 443 | -497 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4785 | 4776 | 33 | 4371 | 5679 | 25 | 414 | -903 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5840 | 6424 | 39 | 5341 | 6738 | 27 | 499 | -314 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 |
Univariate Analysis
We first analyzed the distribution of gold earned per minute for the 2 teams.
Gold reflects how much advantage a team has over the other, equipment wise. We plotted a histogram of gold per minute for both teams of every game, and the result is a bimodal distribution, which hints that we are able to discern whether a team won or lost from their gold per minute. This makes sense since for each game, the winning team will have more gold than the losing team. The temporal difference is made up for by finding the rate of gold earned.
Having quantified the resource advantage, we then analyzed the map control advantage using team vision scores.
Univariate Analysis
Vision score reflects how clearly a team can see the others’ movements through the fog of war, with higher score meaning better vision. We plotted box plots for the distribution of vision scores based on whether a team won or lost, and we see that a team’s vision score can hint at whether a team won. The similar results make sense, as pro teams understand the great importance of vision, and the small increase the winning team has can be attributed to the greater map control that being ahead allows, enabling the winning team to get more wards down deeper on the map.
Interesting Aggregates
We grouped the team data by whether teams won and lost:
| kills | deaths | team kpm | elementaldrakes | elders | firstherald | heralds | firstbaron | barons | firsttower | damagetochampions | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.37182 | 19.6339 | 0.291164 | 1.42961 | 0.0219595 | 0.417042 | 0.76708 | 0.14283 | 0.22201 | 0.316535 | 59724.8 | 19.6138 | 9.40944 | 0.641958 | 2.95844 | 0.0853041 | 0.582676 | 1.20646 | 0.804711 | 1.12447 | 0.683465 | 73721 |
We can see a clear pattern that winning teams have higher means in each of the performance metrics selected, lending to the idea that it is possible to have a decent accuracy in whether a team won or lost a game based on their performance metrics.
Framing a Prediction Problem
Through our data analysis, we found a clear pattern that the winning team has higher values in the performance metrics we selected. Hence, we ask the question: What will be the result of the game based on team-aggregate game state at 20 minutes? The 20-minute threshold is a pivotal moment in professional play, often marking the transition from early-game skirmishes to larger, decisive teamfights and map objectives. By investigating the relationship between early-game advantages and eventual match results, we want to see how reliably teams can convert leads into wins at the highest level of play.
Our classifier will perform binary classification, with the response variable being outcome aka. whether the team won the match. Accuracy was chosen as the evaluation metric as it provides a clear measure of our model’s performance, with outcome having a 50-50 split between winning and losing.
Baseline Model
Our baseline model is trained using Logistic Regression using the features outlined in the introduction. side is a nominal feature, which we performed one hot encoding on to convert to numerical data. The rest of our features, such as gold and vision score, were quantative. The dataset was split 80:20 for training and testing.
We fit our performance using Grid Search. After fitting the model, the baseline model achieved an accuracy of 0.7780. This demonstrates a good baseline with a significant accuracy for predicting game outcomes given the first 20 minutes of gameplay.
In the next section, we will refine this model through feature engineering.
Final Model
We add kill_diff_10, kill_diff_15, kill_diff_20to our Logistic Regression baseline model, since just the number of team kills alone are not enough to describe a team’s lead- for example, a 10-10 score line of each team’s kills is greatly different from a 10-0 score line, even though the first team has the same number of kills and gold.
These enhancements led to better predictive accuracy compared to the baseline model, with a final testing accuracy of 0.7782, demonstrating slight improvement over the baseline model. We yield this using optimal parameters of C=10 and penalty=l2 with best CV accuracy of 0.7986